11 Trillion Slump

Fake valuations…delusional forecasts, greed.

Marcelo Marini, typing today from Figueira Beach, Brazil.

Last week we decided to spend some time at the beach… figuring out what will be the end of this history to be seen as a catastrophe that unfolds…unveils..reveals.

11 Trillion dollars in stock shares had been slumped in May. Which 11 trillion dollars from fake valuations? Sky-high…delusional forecasts and greed? 

Money flows from the poor to the well-informed. To their benefit, financial institutions create delusions to profit from.

A unique scenario of inflation, economic unproductivity, debt, social disorder, and a pandemic.

Willing to be safer, wiser, and savvy, as reported two weeks ago. Some wealthy European families decided to buy gold and… crypto; then what’s next? Is there any other way of protecting your wealth? sure but… 

Not Luna.

We’ve seen many emperors try to rule the world by its own rules. The ruler gets smashed… it’s a global tendency; no individual power can be more significant than the power of its members.

Still, influenced by the news, specialists, PH.Ds, they tried:

…short Bitcoin…

…stable coins…

…shift from money to crypto?

…overcome a pandemia…

…revert to an economic disaster…

Too late.

Not over… still computing…

Marcelo Marini

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A new economic disaster

Brazil’s Central Bank now prints R$200 bills…soon what?

Marcelo Marini typing today from Office.

When I was a child, I used to buy snacks for a quarter. Now I don’t think my nephew could buy it for less than two bucks. So we saw food, car, trucks, homes, and even farmland prices increase enormously in less than twenty years.

ATM: I withdraw hundreds of bills on a recent Cancun trip with no real value… I did the same in China, Russia, and Argentina… now what?

That’s what inflation does. First, something costs a dime, then suddenly 1 dollar, and in years it can reach 100-200 bucks.

Brazil’s Central Bank now prints R$200 bills. So when are R$500 bills popping up? It’s just a matter of time.

Is FED creating a new economic disaster?

Purchase power is a real deal. If you earn more, you have a more significant purchase power. Then you can spend more like what the government does. 

Because we were born with a few issues, we usually spend more than we can. That’s why bankers love people! Because we are foolish.

All those gifts, black cards, and small talk have in common. They are meant to inflate your ego, block your rational mind and sell yourself short by being emotional and tending to stupidity.

Credit creates bubbles…

What a mess a group of PH.Ds can do?

Soon a $500 bill in your pocket!

Inflation can’t get anyone richer, it’s just a sensation, but you are poorer.

What do you pocket?

Is cash king? Even in inflation times? So why did Warren Buffett spend more on buying business shares this quarter?

Inflation…

Stay tuned.

Marcelo Marini

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The government spends…

Economic policies, inflation, the credit bubble makers…

Marcelo Marini typing today from Southern Brazil.

Two days ago, trucks were moving down to Rio Grande Port to export soybean to China; this time, they were returning to the farm unloaded… as we see the end of a good but not great production season here.

Unlike politicians, farmers need to pay for their meals and ours beforehand.

Brave farmers! They truly deserve a standing ovation.

Lots of seeds, lots of equipment, land… great prices (this time). However, high costs and lack of production are a pain… still lots of food!

Do the math.

Why is lunch for two 100 bucks? Could we pay 37 for a couple of coffee for two? Water 5? Is it the farmer’s fault? I don’t believe it’s the farmer’s fault… But Ph.D. specialists. Naive thinkers? 

Not sure…

The ones that make economic policies, the credit bubble makers…

The world can be separated between Thinkers and Doers; Doers discover how things work because they actually do something, so they hold enough knowledge to run their ranches, factories, small shops, and the like… and the thinkers who study what the Doers do…To ruin their lives… 

Maybe they are more concerned about dinner tonight, historical data, and correlations while their wages inflate… as real-life inflation continues. Who pays the bill? The government? The government spends.

Next stop: Economic depression, where we all need to meet real-life capitalism again.

The movie goes on.

Take a seat.

Stay connected.

Marcelo Marini

Disclaimer.

Truth has a feeling…

Inflation and the stock meltdown

Marcelo Marini typing from southern Brazil,

Alright, nothing seems more accurate than the feeling of the truth.

Truth has a feeling…

And there’s a feeling of truth in the air.

As we see inflation and the stock meltdown, we feel that something is going wrong, and maybe that doesn’t depend so much on us.

Yesterday’s transit was chaotic, and inflation was tremendous. Usually, we know how to deal with the first, not the second.

If you go to the supermarket and come back, you might not know it, or perhaps you do, but the truth comes to you if you go out for lunch.

In our view, it’s all about facts, you can tell people 100 stories, but if you want to deliver results, you get to show them.

Prices changed, and we missed the point, or did the government and the whole economy? Why do we do so much and work so hard if our money loses value? If people had known it sooner, they could have bought some stocks, land, a house, or a horse.

What did we do wrong if not what they told us?

Does the credit kill us again?

People work hard, pay bills, and try to live the best they can, but what’s the point?

Nobody cares about the economy and finances… politicians care about power and ego… then the whole structure is broken.

Do they should? What do they know to tell you what to do?

Then truth can be revealed… or not.

We can’t stop.

Speak to you soon,

Marcelo Marini

Disclaimer.

The whole economy missed the point.

Hiking a collapse.

Marcelo Marini is unsatisfied with Southern Brazil.

We arrived near midday; the sun was beautiful, the green was fantastic, mountains and a feeling of hiking. However, it’s a particular place in Brazil where people don’t invest in tourism like most of the not trendy places in the country; that’s why we don’t know how to start.

Do we need a map?

In the meantime, we crossed thousand of trucks, those same trucks that go from Cruz Alta to Rio Grande Port to export Brazilian Soybeans to China… 

There’s a certain feeling that we got messed up someplace… driveway is so bad and busy, and Gas is about R$ 6,99 per liter. Is the government stealing us? Perhaps some oil company? What happened with commodity prices?

In the middle of the green forest comes a particular thought…Do we produce what is right?

How come we create every new tool for measuring productivity, and we became poorer? 

There’s always some time rhythm in life. No plant grows in a day!

This civilization needs to rethink, do we measure GDP for what?

Can we compare the US, UK, Europe, and China?

Behind Argentina, Venezuela, Russia? Never…

But are we measuring productivity instead of efficiency? Why?

Or maybe we just missed the point.

More to come.

Marcelo Marini

The end of the economy

I think a recession, at this stage, is almost inevitable. The probability of a recession in 2023 is undoubtedly very, very high because of the challenges of getting this roaring inflation under control and having so few tools to control the supply side of the economy.Said by Former Fed Gov. Roger Ferguson Some Ultra-Wealth European…...

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Top Well-Run Companies. 

What can we learn from that? When looking for a well-managed business, this could help. Dear reader, Learn with failure, learn with others, learn with yourself, and never stop learning. When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change. What can you learn from this Best Well-Managed Business Report…...

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