It’s very interesting to think that we can talk about manias, crowds, illusions, and still be fooled by them.
Dear reader,
It’s very interesting to think that we can talk about manias, crowds, illusions, and still be fooled by them. Look… There are times that some assets may move in a quite peculiar way, that may make us feel different.
It doesn’t matter how wise, intelligent, smart you are. You can be deceived by them.
For Independent Thinkers: Your mind is a sacred gift, and you hold the keys to your mind. So think wisely, act right; protecting your thoughts is the only way to protect your present and future. That’s something wise to consider, especially in this uncertain time ahead (more coming in the next paragraphs).
Many predictions of human-misconceptions we’ve made are still developing these days. We will provide some examples below.
As our long-time readers would recall me saying:
The only way you will know if you are in a bubble is the day after it.
Manias
We got Tesla in its way up, so as we did with NVIDIA and Bitcoin (next scrollings). We called Investments of the Future, New Economy, Trends & Future, Digitalization, you name it… sky rocket, it was definitely, factual money…
What happened with Tesla in 2020 is one of the reasons we told you that Tesla in 2019 was different from 2021 and different from now.
When I made my first investment in Tesla (April-2019), the company was about to have its first operating profit (Q3-2020) – operating income turned positive – We were confident than that the operational result would follow in that situation (numbers). As a result of that, the stock grew immensely (chart below), until it reached a time we thought it was unwise to keep all of it. We couldn’t justify its price.
Now we urge the reader to think: How much should the 3 and 4 billion dollar companies need to generate in future revenue to be able to value at today’s prices?
We have to be highly rational to think that the underlying value of a stock can be tracked down to its results. Any deviation from its notion suggests speculation.
The remaining stocks were “free profit stocks” waiting for further developments.
Quantum computing (and passwords).
NVIDIA also felt wrong at some price points. The business relies on the expectation that we need better computers, which is right. It’s more likely NVIDIA will continue to create great products. Some may say, when achievable, quantum computing will be able to solve 36 years of classical computer problems in 1 second… good? Stay tuned.
It’s essential to say: If we are willing to buy some assets, it’s because we want to profit from it. Either the company/asset will develop, or some trend (price expectation or even reputation) will form.
Coming from another world – (and keys).
Although Bitcoin is certainly out of this world, its keys may be coming from the future. Bitcoin survives on the expectations. That it won’t be able to be cracked. It’s the most advanced and intelligent system and technology on earth, while it basically was built to not change…
The question we may question ourselves: When quantum computers arrive, will Bitcoin adopt post-quantum security? how manageable is that risk? It may be a death sentence….
Will quantum computers be able to crack the wallet? Think about a Quantum computer, the same that can take 1 second to solve what a classical computing takes 36 years. 36 years in a second. How many seconds they would need to break some public-key exposed? As the article suggests, over 89% of BTC has public keys already exposed. It’s not a matter of how you will store it… It may just be a matter of time.
It doesn’t matter where your BTC is stored if a quantum computer becomes capable of cracking the public key and figure out your private key. We don’t know, but we question it.
As our previous written… You can buy a business and stocks in tranches when you have a higher price instability, volatility, or some economic and market signs that things are too volatile. You can split your buying or selling movement into days, weeks, months, etc. That will make the price you dealt less volatile, which is how most institutions do when investing. — Marcelo Marini, Thoughts on Risk and Behaviors, The Independent Thinking, March 2022.
Welcome to August…!
This same conviction in AI and Bitcoin today, is some kind of similar to the late 1999. What’s coming for NASDAQ in the next months?
Since, 1928, August is the second-worst performing month of the year for the S&P500, in total return, so the reader may ask, what’s the worst month? September. If you need to make informed decisions, that’s where you may start.
In situations of fear, most humans tend to react like animals in a hunt. That’s why they lose everything by overreacting in market melts. — Marcelo Marini, Markets behave as humans behave, The Independent Thinking, February, 2023.
Keep walking the path,
More coming.
Regards,
Today, let’s take a look at how you can start your Independent Thinking Experience available here We recommend that you…
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Valeu Marcelão! Dicas ótimas.
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boa :)
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