Navigating Uncertainty

Too much attention makes a donkey think he’s a lion.

Dear reader,

It seems that something interesting may happen, besides to what the mainstream media says. We have our doubts…

Look, at the Dot-Com peak, the Shiller PE was around 44.2. Today it’s currently marking 38.37 (chart below). Which is higher than both 2008 (~24) and 2020 (~31) crisis… still, we may have a long way to go, perhaps breaking new records, who knows?

The US Total Market valuation is among the highest in history, which stands for prosperity times! As we may prompt ourselves to reflect on the underlying thoughts of today’s crowd in society. We can’t help but wonder what has changed since the Dot-Com peak.

The Colossal AI Boom, powered by Bitcoin

The colossal AI/Bitcoin boom may come to something interesting… especially when confidence fades. They are two forces, one contributing to another, but we ask ourselves, which one can we trust?

Last week, the attention was that there are a similar conviction accross the AI/Bitcoin future-forward expectations and 1999 — the year before the Dot-Com crash (on March, 2000).

We wonder if the knowledge that we have today about Bitcoin, will still be the knowledge of the future. As technology evolves, nothing changes? Some new developments may surprise us.

Change as it changes.

We had television before mass consumption skyrocketed. We had more clothes, movies, music, and food—what more could we ask for?

We had computers before passwords and antivirus software existed.

We had digital documents before we had to deal with limited storage space.

We had email addresses before we had to worry about unwanted viruses and other digital risks.

We had the internet, and then we were informed about the dangers of the dark web.

We had social media before influencers, crowds’ behavior, and perhaps propaganda found more ways to control our minds.

We had Bitcoin before quantum computing uncertainties about the future. Public-keys and the clouds surrounding what an incredibly fast computer could solve while we still didn’t understand much about Bitcoin’s enigmatic past.

We had AI before AI scams, copyrighting infringements, and zombies.

As previously mentioned, there will be clinics for virtual addiction in the future.

As society evolves we understand why generational wealth is maintained, some people get stuck in poverty, some countries are abundant, but actually poor… As many people have abundant resources and are still poor. Wealth is beyond trends, it may be something between, education, culture and a very long-term thinking.

Too much attention makes a donkey think he’s a lion.

As someone mentioned in the Crowds Media:

“You are part of the 1% that invests in Bitcoin”.

Certainly as a motive to feel proud, although that alone doesn’t mean the other 99% will be convinced to store a digital data in a specially complex way, before the price crashes? We don’t know. We are trying to figure it out.

Complexity alone may drive behavior, we guess.

The word “new” might evoke a certain response in us. Not far from that is the word “young,” which is somewhat similar.

Endless trends

Do we have enough information about how Bitcoin and Blockchain will work in the future? Does the technology we use today, will prevail the upcoming changes in modern society? Will we keep listening to our Walkman, Portable CD player and iPod forever?

As of this week, the OnePlus phone is currently trending in New York. We can try to compare it to the iPhone… it wins in longer battery, faster charging… that’s new information for Apple. Although it may not represent great risk, it clearly shows us that products – even the best – are subjected to lifetime cycles.

Some trends are longer than others. Bubbles are prolonged trends. With the right knowledge people can still make money. The difference between us and the crowd is that when something changes, we won’t be surprised.

More coming.

It pays to think independently.

Regards,

Marini

About the author: factualmoney

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