Unconventional questions

Capital gains, passive income, trends and future – the Kitchen insight.

Dear reader,

We want to bring your attention to two charts and some unconventional questions.

Consider we bought an Miami apartment 10 years ago. How splendid would it be? 

The day was march, 4th 2015, just in case our calculations match – only few months later I would write my first essay, About being present – so to remember.

It would be a great investment, not just by potential capital gains in the future (today), as you would see. This reflections may build some of the necessary models to understand how business and finances work.

As I’m listening to some Jazz today and the sun is preparing to set at 5:55 pm, 19 degrees celsius (make your math).

Mistakes and opportunities that follows the wise investor.

The dollar appreciation we would’ve got is tremendous, coming from USD 2.94 (march 4th, 2015 – remember?) to 5.57 (today, July, 22nd 2025), that is… 89.5% gain! 

Better yet, it can generate more sources of income for us – considering we will rent it for about 10-15 days a year… as a minimum… if more, then more, you choose, once it’s ours, nobody can beat our own thinking.

The problem is, human misconceptions, we tend to know the future ahead of us… There’s a way of thinking that may improve this cognitive errors, one way is to ask the right questions…

Jeff Bezos, told he only had about 60% of chance of success at Amazon.com. If you have the proper mindset you are completely ok with doubts. Another example: Another example: What are our chances of going to Mars in 10 years? Good point, but isn’t the right question. It’s the right question for those which may sell the tickets. Nobody seems to question it.

Asking the right questions about, buying an additional Beach apartment, Soy prices, and Bitcoin.

Now the sun has set, lets continue…

Having the dollar around 3 (2.94 USD) in 2015 was something crazy to think about, especially those watching the daily news, getting infected by economists, politics, and some bad daily news cognitions. -It could be worse, they say. They can prove we are wrong, even without action. 

In a business perceptive, thinking wisely, what would be worst than a possible 89% appreciation, not included the capital gains and the passive income generation? …and the value of a additional beach view we may get?

Let’s get to the 1st degree, simple math: 

• 2.94 USD (2015) to 5.57 USD (today, July, 22nd 2025), that is… 89.5% 
• Capital gain comparing 2015 – 2025, around 200-300%, supposing we would sell it this year. 
• Not enough? Add more, 10 years X 15 days minimum rent per year X Price = Additional total. You see, we can go very far thinking.

Let’s say today is the future, 2025. We predicted we would have a wonderful asset in Miami… then what would we be missing these days?

Would you buy a Farm, Gold or Bitcoin?

If we look to the Soy market, prices had when very low in Chicago… in May, 2023 (read here) we anticipated the Agro-normalization, have you seen what happened with Soy prices so far? It’s a -27,4% in 25 months. The market declined nearly 30%.

Say you have got a farm, your income would be drawn ~30%, down, while your costs could move asymmetrically. That’s what happened to Bitcoin.

What if we didn’t have the opportunity to lock the appreciation of that Miami apartment in 2015? How could we, without the need to buy the whole apartment, lock in just a fraction of it?… let’s say we could buy just the “kitchen” instead. We would still gain the same amount. That’s when we understand you have to value the whole business.

If we got, as a group, locked in a portion of that apartment we would be exposed to that opportunity, we would’ve create an asymmetric opportunity for not only, capital gains, fiat appreciation and the possibility of extra passive income. Not counting the gorgeous views… Would you fell better now about losing that whole opportunity while gaining a portion of its gains? That’s called capital allocation.

The point is, we don’t have to buy a farm to earn what a farm could generate. That’s timeless. There are multiple ways of gaining this potential asymmetries.

Would you buy Gold or a Farm? Or Bitcoin?

If we change the day this question is asked we change the perception of the edge we may take. Think about trends, and the possibilities it brings to the wise investor, the capital allocator.

Experts may say: You certainly have two opposite forces… one would feed the world, and other would be transactional future.

…that’s also the wrong way of thinking, although it’s what the mainstream says.

As for gold, we may have capital gains, but what more?

If we buy a farm how much can generate in a year? That’s all about cashflow. And if you buy gold? or bitcoin, would you be able to generate income, or just possible capital appreciation?

Bitcoin would get 200% higher?

Take Bitcoin as an example, how much would 200% gain mean to your gains? How predictable is that in the near future. Mars thinking? What would the people that sold you make? If you allocate, would you be able to generate potential passive income? If the market crashes, how much would you loose? Its all about the “kitchen” concept, would you be able to buy just the Kitchen of it, lock your possible loss and being expose to uncertain, unconventional possible gains?

Mind your own business. Make your math.

Say tuned.

Regards,

M. Marini

About the author: factualmoney

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