March 24th, 2021 – Factual Macro – Issue 0062 – Year 3 – Factual Manhattan L.L.C. – Author: Marcelo Marini
Dear subscriber,
This is our Economic Newsletter, the Factual Macro is an Macro Economic Newsletter that shows you ways to preserve your wealth for years to come.
In this Newsletter there is no portfolio for you to follow, instead you will receive valuable information to help you protect and grow your wealth from now on. Every month our founder Marini exposes his opposite thoughts to show ideas that you will not find anywhere else.
This month we are bringing tons of new informations as the Macro world seems to be returning to its full recovery, specially in the US, but, the equity world in our view specially depends of how COVID-19 vaccines continues to thrive, plus, there may be a movement of rebalancing portfolios from stocks to bonds in the medium term.
The economy is beginning to reopen in the States and it brings a new momentum to markets globally but some countries are still struggling, that means that they are still in the previous scenario of our Issue 61 (portuguese only).
We still don’t know if the virus will be that soon but what we know is that or hope is refreshed. That confidence is incredibly powerful to markets so we expect an increase in valuation in old sectors, real estate, industrial, materials, food & beverage, as well as hotel and transportation. If vaccination continues to respond some sectors that can be beneficial are industry, materials, hotellary, travel, REITs and consumer.
Due to the latest year burstdown companies and governments have more debt and inflation is higher.
Interest rates are near zero and can be there for longer, until we can really see GDP returning to its pre-COVID figures.
Now, take a look at some charts.
Brazil’s FGV confidence index soaring… due to (continue)
The increasing cases and deaths confirmed… stocks can be thumbing for much longer, so we expect high volatility this month.
In the US people are more likely to gather…
US air travel seems to be taking off. Same can be expected in correlation to the decline of deaths due to COVID-19.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index show better results as companies are reseting their plants and returning to increase volumes as companies goods stocks are low (continue)
We expect more results in Quality stocks as Growth stocks (usually Small Caps) are devaluing.
Reader Questions:
Each month we’ll try to answer your most frequently asked questions. While we read every email, remember we don’t give investment advice. You can send your questions to us here.
How can I buy bitcoins?
Thanks for your question. This Thursday we’ll be teaching our registered members how to start investing in Bitcoin and cryptos. Please follow the Investments of the Future Classes.
Is the marker overvaluated?
Thanks for your question. As we see some stocks can be overvalued but if you are improving your stock picking skills you could try to find some opportunities… There are more than 5000 stocks in the US Market.
I’m strugling to study, how can I keep myself motivated?
Habit is a great friend of successful people, set up new goals, plan in advance and keep to the plan, in the end it is your life that you should be proud of. Do it for yourself and it will pay off.
See you next month.
Marini
